Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

that robots cannot perform—ones that require these two abilities.
    Among blue-collar workers, the losers will be workers who perform purely repetitive tasks (like autoworkers on the factory line) because robots excel at this. Computers give the illusion that they possess intelligence, but that is only because they can add millions of times faster than we can. We forget that computers are just sophisticated adding machines, and repetitive work is what they do best. That is why some automobile assembly-line workers have been among the first to suffer from the computer revolution. This means that any factory work that can be reduced to a set of scripted, repetitive motions will eventually disappear.
    Surprisingly, there is a large class of blue-collar work that
will
survive the computer revolution and even flourish. The winners will be those who perform nonrepetitive work that requires pattern recognition. Garbage collectors, police officers, construction workers, gardeners, and plumbers will all have jobs in the future. Garbage collectors, in order to pick up the trash at different homes and apartments, have to recognize the garbage bags, place them in the truck, and haul them out to the waste yard. But every piece of trash requires a different method of disposal. For construction workers, every task requires different tools, blueprints, and instructions. No two construction sites or two tasks are the same. Police officers have to analyze a variety of crimes in different situations. Moreover, they also have to understand the motives and methods of criminals, which is far beyond the ability of any computer. Similarly, every garden and sink is different, requiring different skills and tools of the plumber.
    Among white-collar workers, the losers will be those involved in middleman work taking inventory and “bean counting.” This means low-levelagents, brokers, tellers, accountants, etc., will be increasingly thrown out of work as their jobs disappear. These jobs are called “the friction of capitalism.” Already, one can buy a plane ticket by scanning the Web for the best prices, bypassing a travel agent.
    Merrill Lynch, for example, famously stated that it would never adopt online stock trading. It would always do stock trading the old-fashioned way. John Steffens, Merrill’s brokerage chief, said, “ The do-it-yourself model of investing, centered on Internet trading, should be regarded as a serious threat to America’s financial lives.” So it was humiliating, therefore, when it was finally forced by market forces to adopt online trading in 1999. “ Rarely in history has the leader in an industry felt compelled to do an about-face and, virtually overnight, adopt what is essentially a new business model,” wrote Charles Gasparino of ZDNet news.
    This also means that the corporate pyramid will be thinned out. Since the people at the very top can interact directly with the sales force and representatives in the field, there is less need for middlemen to carry out orders from the top. In fact, such job reductions occurred when the personal computer first entered the office.
    So how will middlemen survive in the future? They will have to add value to their work and provide the one commodity that robots cannot deliver: common sense.
    For example, in the future, you will be able to buy a house on the Internet via your watch or contact lens. But no one is going to buy a house this way, since this is one of the most important financial transactions you will perform in your life. For important purchases like a home, you want to talk to a human who can tell you where the good schools are, where the crime rate is low, how the sewer system works, etc. For this, you want to talk to a skilled agent who adds value.
    Similarly, low-level stockbrokers are being thrown out of work by online trading, but stockbrokers who give reasoned, wise investment advice will always be in demand. Brokerage jobs will continue to dry up unless they offer value-added services, such as the wisdom of top market analysts and economists and the inside knowledge of experienced brokers. In an era when online trading mercilessly drives down the cost of stock trades, stockbrokers will survive only if they can also market their intangible qualities, such as experience, knowledge, and analysis.
    So among white-collar workers, the winners will be those who can provide useful common sense. This means workers involved with creativity—artwork, acting,