Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

radio, the Internet, motors, etc.
    Last, the nuclear forces, also mastered by European scientists, are changing everything around us. Not only can we unlock the secrets of the heavens, revealing the power source that fires the stars, but we can also unravel inner space, using this knowledge for medicine through MRI, CAT, and PET scans; radiation therapy; and nuclear medicine. Because the nuclear forces govern the immense power stored within the atom, the nuclear forces can ultimately determine the fate of humanity, whether we will prosper by harnessing the unlimited power of fusion or die in a nuclear inferno.

NEAR FUTURE (PRESENT TO 2030)
    FOUR STAGES OF TECHNOLOGY
    The combination of changing social conditions and the mastery of the four forces propelled Europe to the forefront of nations. But technologies are dynamic, changing all the time. They are born, evolve, and rise and fall. Tosee how specific technologies will change in the near future, it is useful to see how technologies obey certain laws of evolution.
    Mass technologies usually evolve in four basic stages. This can be seen in the evolution of paper, running water, electricity, and computers. In stage I, the products of technology are so precious that they are closely guarded. Paper, when it was invented in the form of papyrus by the ancient Egyptians and then by the Chinese thousands of years ago, was so precious that one papyrus scroll was closely guarded by scores of priests. This humble technology helped to set into motion ancient civilization.
    Paper entered stage II around 1450, when Gutenberg invented printing from movable type. This made possible the “personal book,” so that one person could possess one book containing the knowledge of hundreds of scrolls. Before Gutenberg, there were only 30,000 books in all Europe. By 1500, there were 9 million books, stirring up intense intellectual ferment and stimulating the Renaissance.
    But around 1930, paper hit stage III, when the cost fell to a penny a sheet. This made possible the personal library, where one person could possess hundreds of books. Paper became an ordinary commodity, sold by the ton. Paper is everywhere and nowhere, invisible and ubiquitous. Now we are in stage IV, where paper is a fashion statement. We decorate our world with paper of all colors, shapes, and sizes. The largest source of urban waste is paper. So paper evolved from being a closely guarded commodity to being waste.
    The same applies to running water. In ancient times, in stage I, water was so precious that a single well had to be shared by an entire village. This lasted for thousands of years, until the early 1900s, when personal plumbing was gradually introduced and we entered stage II. After World War II, running water entered stage III and became cheap and available to an expanding middle class. Today, running water is in stage IV, a fashion statement, appearing in numerous shapes, sizes, and applications. We decorate our world with water, in the form of fountains and displays.
    Electricity also went through the same stages. With the pioneering work of Thomas Edison and others, in stage I a factory shared a single lightbulb and electric motor. After World War I, we entered stage II with the personal lightbulb and personal motor. Today, electricity has disappeared; it is everywhere and nowhere. Even the word “electricity” has prettymuch disappeared from the English language. At Christmas, we use hundreds of blinking lights to decorate our homes. We assume that electricity is hidden in the walls, ubiquitous. Electricity is a fashion statement, lighting up Broadway and decorating our world.
    In stage IV, both electricity and running water have become utilities. They are so cheap, and we consume so much of them, that we meter the amount of electricity and water that runs into our home.
    The computer follows the same pattern. Companies that understood this thrived and prospered. Companies that didn’t were driven almost to bankruptcy. IBM dominated stage I with the mainframe computer in the 1950s. One mainframe computer was so precious that it was shared by 100 scientists and engineers. However, the management of IBM failed to appreciate Moore’s law, so they almost went bankrupt when we entered stage II in the 1980s, with the coming of the personal computer.
    But even personal computer manufacturers got complacent. They envisioned a world with stand-alone computers on every desk. They were caught off guard with