Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

weaponized smallpox.
    In 2005, biologists successfully resurrected the Spanish flu virus of 1918, which killed more people than World War I. Remarkably, they were able to resurrect the virus by analyzing a woman who had died and was buried in the permafrost of Alaska, as well as samples taken from U.S. soldiers during the epidemic.
    The scientists then proceeded to publish the entire genome of the virus on the Web, making it known to the entire world. Many scientists felt uneasy about this, since one day even a college student with access to a university laboratory might be able to resurrect one of the greatest killers in the history of the human race.
    In the short term, the publication of the genome of the Spanish flu virus was a bonanza for scientists, who then could examine the genes to solve a long-standing puzzle: How did a tiny mutation cause such widespread damage to the human population? The answer was soon found. The Spanish flu virus, unlike other varieties, causes the body’s immune system to overreact, releasing large amounts of fluid that eventually kills the patient. The person literally drowns in his own fluids. Once this was understood, the genes that cause this deadly effect could be compared to the genes of the H1N1 flu and other viruses. Fortunately, none of them possessed this lethal gene. Moreover, one could actually calculate how close avirus was to attaining this alarming capability, and the H1N1 flu was still far from achieving this ability.
    But in the long term, there is a price to pay. Every year, it becomes easier and easier to manipulate the genes of living organisms. Costs keep plummeting, and the information is widely available on the Internet.
    Within a few decades, some scientists believe that it will be possible to create a machine that will allow you to create any gene simply by typing the desired components. By typing in the A-T-C-G symbols making up a gene, the machine will then automatically splice and dice DNA to create that gene. If so, then it means that perhaps even high school students may one day do advanced manipulations of life-forms.
    One nightmare scenario is airborne AIDS. Cold viruses, for example, possess a few genes that allow them to survive in droplets of aerosols, so that sneezing can infect others. At present, the AIDS virus is quite vulnerable when it is exposed to the environment. But if the cold virus genes are implanted into the AIDS virus, then it is conceivable that they might make it able to survive outside the human body. This could then cause the AIDS virus to spread like the common cold, thereby infecting a large portion of the human race. It is also known that viruses and bacteria do exchange genes, so there is also the possibility that the AIDS and common cold viruses can exchange genes naturally, although this is less likely.
    In the future, a terrorist group or nation-state may be able to weaponize AIDS. The only thing preventing them from unleashing it would be the fact that they, too, would also perish if the virus were to be dispersed into the environment.
    This threat became real right after the tragedy of 9/11. An unknown person mailed packets of a white powder containing anthrax spores to well-known politicians around the country. A careful, microscopic analysis of the white powder showed that the anthrax spores had been weaponized for maximum death and destruction. Suddenly, the entire country was gripped with fear that a terrorist group had access to advanced biological weapons. Although anthrax is found in the soil and throughout our environment, only a person with advanced training and maniacal intentions could have purified and weaponized the anthrax and pulled off this feat.
    Even after one of the largest manhunts in U.S. history, the culprit was never found, even to this day (although a leading suspect recently committedsuicide). The point here is that even a single individual with some advanced biological training can terrorize an entire nation.
    One restraining factor that has kept germ warfare in check is simple self-interest. During World War I, the efficacy of poison gas on the battlefield was mixed. The wind conditions were often unpredictable, so the gas could blow back onto your own troops. Its military value was largely in terrorizing the enemy, rather than defeating him. Not a single decisive battle was won using poison gas. And even at the height of the Cold War, both sides knew that poison gas and biological weapons could