Science of Discworld III

away that had not been subjected to radiation, when a high percentage of both was allowed to survive. Usually, in British Rana temporaria frogs, it is very difficult to achieve ten per cent normal adults, or even ones that are viable in the laboratory, but they don’t produce extra limbs as palustris does. It is normally the case, of course, that a female frog’s lifetime production of some 10,000 eggs results in a few highly selected, and therefore ‘normal’, survivors, and on average just two breeders. But conservationists don’t like thinking about this reproductive arithmetic, with all those deaths.
    Here is another issue, again chosen from the thalidomide literature, that demonstrates how talk of Lamarckism, or of ‘mutations’, misses the point.
    Some of the children affected by thalidomide have married each other, and several of these pairings have produced phocomelic children. The obvious deduction, from the folk-DNA point of view, is that the DNA of the first generation must have been altered, so that it produced the same effect in the next generation. In fact, this effect looks, at first glance, like Lamarckism: the inheritance of acquired characters. Indeed, it seems a classic demonstration of such inheritance, as convincing as if cutting off terriers’ tails resulted in puppies being born with short tails. However, it is actually a lesson in not attempting to explain things ‘at first glance’, like the conservationists did with the abnormal frogs.
    It is very tempting to do just that, when the idea of heredity in your mind is that one gene leads to one character, so if you’ve got the character you’ve got the gene, and vice versa. Figures from the epidemiological literature suggest that in the space of a few years either side of 1960, about 4 million women took thalidomide at the criticaltime during gestation. Of those, about 15,000–18,000 fetuses were damaged; 12,000 came to birth with defects, and about 8,000 survived their first year. That is to say, the natural course of development selected just 1 in 500 who showed adverse effects. The proportion of children born with no detectable defect was much, much higher. And that fact changes our view of the likely reason for the children of two thalidomide parents to suffer from phocomelia, for the following reason.
    Conrad Waddington demonstrated a phenomenon called ‘genetic assimilation’. He started with a genetically diverse population of wild fruit flies, and found that about one in 15,000 of their pupae, when warmed, produced a fly with no cross-vein in its wing. These ‘cross-veinless’ flies looked just like some very rare mutant flies that turned up occasionally in the wild, just as occasional genetically phocomelic children turned up before thalidomide. By breeding from the flies that responded to the treatment, Waddington selected for a lower and lower threshold of response. In a few tens of generations, he had selected flies that bred true for the cross-veinless trait, exhibiting it regularly without anyone warming the pupae. This may look like Lamarckian inheritance, but it’s not. It’s genetic assimilation. The experiments were selecting flies that had no cross-vein at lower and lower temperature thresholds. Eventually, they selected flies that had no cross-vein at ‘normal’ temperatures.
    Similarly, genetic assimilation provides a much better explanation than Lamarckism for the phocomelic children of thalidomide-modified parents. We have selected , from some 4 million foetuses, those that respond to thalidomide with phocomelia. It is not surprising that when they marry each other, they produce a few progeny whose threshold is very low – below zero in fact. They are so liable to produce phocomelia that they do it without thalidomide, just as Waddington’s flies came to produce cross-veinlessness without warming the pupae.
*
    One of the things that really worried Darwin was the existence of parasitic wasps – a fact that has influenced our Discworld tale, but has gone unremarked until now in the scientific commentaries. Parasitic wasps lay their eggs in other insects’ larvae, so that as the wasp eggs grow into wasp larvae, they eat their hosts. Darwin could see how this might have happened on evolutionary grounds, but it seemed to him to be rather immoral. He was aware that wasps don’t have a sense of morality, but he saw it as some kind of flaw on the part of the wasps’ creator. If God designed each species