The Global eBook Report: Current Conditions & Future Projections. Update October 2013

process that is outdated, often manual, and often paper-based. What everyone wants are efficient and automated solutions and streamlined services that reflect the dynamism and excitement of today’s and tomorrow’s products and marketplace.

Chapter 9. Emerging Markets

Brazil
    Update fall 2013
    In early December 2012, Amazon , Google , and Kobo launched localized online platforms in Brazil within hours of each other, kicking off a new round in the ebook race for Latin America’s largest economy. However, half a year later, reports indicate that it was not one of these companies but Apple , through its iBookstore , that was ahead in terms of ebook sales.
    The first research comparing the performance of the different e-retailers appeared in Folha de S. Paulo by the end of 2012. According to it, Apple’s lead was followed by Google and then by the local platform Saraiva , Amazon, and Kobo (which is partnering with the local Livraria Cultura ). However, expectations were that the order could shift quickly in the months and years ahead (Carlo Carrenho in Publishing Perspectives , January 2, 2013 ).
    In fact, by March 2012, Amazon had already leaped positions according to some data sales from digital distributor Distribuidora de Livros Digitais (DLD), (see PublishNews April 1, 2011 ), which were disclosed at the Digital Minds Conference in London. DLD’s market share is roughly one-third of the market, so its sales are largely representative of the market. In March 2012, 28.5 percent of all e-book units sold by DLD were sold by Apple. Amazon followed with 22 percent, Google was third with 17.5 percent; local Saraiva came in fourth place with 15 percent, followed by Kobo, which accounted for 11.8 percent of the sales. Considering that DLD’s catalog is focused more on publishers’ frontlist titles and that Amazon is selling more backlist and self-published titles than the competition, it is safe to assume that Amazon is even closer to Apple if we consider the whole market.
    In an early summary after the holidays and year-end 2012, the dynamics of the Brazilian ebook market turned out to be spectacular. In December 2012, sales had grown tenfold year on year, increasing by 110 percent from November to December 2012 alone. This is a huge growth for a tiny market. In 2012, DLD sold around 110,000 units. Based on that, we can forecast the 2012 trade market to be around 330,000 units.
    Another important source of book statistics is the yearly survey conducted by the Brazilian Book Chamber (BBC) and the Economics Research Institute, Fipe. The 2012 numbers, disclosed in July 2013, show that the book market in Brazil accounted for U.S. $2,439 million in wholesale value — i.e., publishers´ net revenues. However, this figure combines $1,795 million (or 73.6 percent) from the private sector with $644 million (or 26.4 percent) from the public sector, the latter coming mostly from federal program purchases of educational materials. Because the government does not cover educational expenses for students in private schools, another $635 million (or 24.6 percent of the total market) comes from private households buying K–12 materials. Altogether, more than half of publishers’ revenues derive from education.
    While overall statistics on Brazil’s book market (which is by far Latin America’s largest) are considered dependable, the emerging digital segment still lacks sufficient scrutiny. The good news is that 2012 was the first year that the Brazilian Book Chamber did more extensive research on e-books. Among a sample of publishers that accounts for 54 percent of the market, according to the survey’s methodology, 227,292 ebook units were sold in 2012, which gave the publishers only US $1.7 million in revenues. The ebook sales were divided into subsectors: trade publishers sold 130,119 units; Science, Technical and Medical publishing (STM) publishers sold 49,256; religious publishers sold 29,072, and educational/K12 publishers sold 18,845. If we combine trade and STM (there is a huge overlap in those sectors in Brazil) and extrapolate to find the sales of the whole market, we will get 332,000 units sold, very close to our first estimate based on DLD’s numbers, and this number would account for only 0.23 percent of all trade and STM book units sold in Brazil in 2012.
    In a detailed projection for 2013, trade and STM ebook sales are expected to account for 2.6 percent of the market share by the end of December (Carlo