Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

immediately size up their environment and act accordingly and hence rate high on this scale. However, this is where robots score badly. Pattern recognition, as we have seen, is one of the principal roadblocks to artificial intelligence. Robots can sense their environments much better than humans, but they do not understand or recognize what they see. On this scale of consciousness, robots score near the bottom, near the insects, due to their lack of pattern recognition.
    The next-higher level of consciousness involves self-awareness. If you place a mirror next to most male animals, they will immediately react aggressively, even attacking the mirror. The image causes the animal to defend its territory. Many animals lack awareness of who they are. But monkeys, elephants, dolphins, and some birds quickly realize that the image in the mirror represents themselves and they cease to attack it. Humans would rank near the top on this scale, since they have a highly developed sense of who they are in relation to other animals, other humans, and the world. Inaddition, humans are so aware of themselves that they can talk silently to themselves, so they can evaluate a situation by thinking.
    Third, animals can be ranked by their ability to formulate plans for the future. Insects, to the best of our knowledge, do not set elaborate goals for the future. Instead, for the most part, they react to immediate situations on a moment-to-moment basis, relying on instinct and cues from the immediate environment.
    In this sense, predators are more conscious than prey. Predators have to plan ahead, by searching for places to hide, by planning to ambush, by stalking, by anticipating the flight of the prey. Prey, however, only have to run, so they rank lower on this scale.
    Furthermore, primates can improvise as they make plans for the immediate future. If they are shown a banana that is just out of reach, then they might devise strategies to grab that banana, such as using a stick. So, when faced with a specific goal (grabbing food), primates will make plans into the immediate future to achieve that goal.
    But on the whole, animals do not have a well-developed sense of the distant past or future. Apparently, there is no tomorrow in the animal kingdom. We have no evidence that they can think days into the future. (Animals will store food in preparation for the winter, but this is largely genetic: they have been programmed by their genes to react to plunging temperatures by seeking out food.)
    Humans, however, have a very well-developed sense of the future and continually make plans. We constantly run simulations of reality in our heads. In fact, we can contemplate plans far beyond our own lifetimes. We judge other humans, in fact, by their ability to predict evolving situations and formulate concrete strategies. An important part of leadership is to anticipate future situations, weigh possible outcomes, and set concrete goals accordingly.
    In other words, this form of consciousness involves predicting the future, that is, creating multiple models that approximate future events. This requires a very sophisticated understanding of common sense and the rules of nature. It means that you ask yourself “what if” repeatedly. Whether planning to rob a bank or run for president, this kind of planning means being able to run multiple simulations of possible realities in your head.
    All indications are that only humans have mastered this art in nature.
    We also see this when psychological profiles of test subjects are analyzed. Psychologists often compare the psychological profiles of adults to their profiles when they were children. Then one asks the question: What is the one quality that predicted their success in marriage, careers, wealth, etc.? When one compensates for socioeconomic factors, one finds that one characteristic sometimes stands out from all the others: the ability to delay gratification. According to the long-term studies of Walter Mischel of Columbia University, and many others, children who were able to refrain from immediate gratification (e.g., eating a marshmallow given to them) and held out for greater long-term rewards (getting two marshmallows instead of one) consistently scored higher on almost every measure of future success, in SATs, life, love, and career.
    But being able to defer gratification also refers to a higher level of awareness and consciousness. These children were able to simulate the future and realize that