Strongman, The

add to the Kosovo precedent by recognising them. He would then have had no argument whatsoever against the demands of Chechen separatists. Putin’s preference was to negotiate the two regions back into Georgia, with appropriate guarantees for their autonomy. But on the other hand he would not, and could not, allow them to be taken by force.
    Galloping to war
    Campaigning for re-election in January 2008 Mikheil Saakashvili vowed to recover both regions. He described the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali as a ‘loose tooth ready for removal’ and promised to recapture it ‘within months at the most’. 10
    The Kosovo precedent and the Bucharest fudge seemed to spur him on. Perhaps he felt he must resolve the ‘frozen conflicts’ quickly, since these had been cited as the main impediment to NATO membership. The day after the Bucharest summit, the Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt had dinner with Saakashvili in Tbilisi, and was so alarmed by the latter’s talk of possible military action to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia that he called his American colleagues to warn them. Bush responded to Bildt’s news by calling Saakashvili: ‘Dear friend, let me be clear: there is no way we will support you. Yes, you are a sovereign leader and we respect you. But you will not get US support if you choose to initiate the use of force.’
    It has been suggested that Saakashvili had returned from his trip to Washington in March with the false impression that he had been given some sort of green light by President Bush to reincorporate the rebel republics. Damon Wilson strongly denies that Bush gave any sort of encouragement for military action. ‘The president couldn’t have been clearer in underscoring that the military course was not a viable path at all. He was encouraging the diplomatic track, cautioning against taking matters into their own hand.’ 11
    But Saakashvili was losing faith in the diplomatic route. A few weeks before Bucharest, the State Duma had declared that ‘the path taken by the Georgian authorities towards full integration in NATO deprives Georgia of the right to consolidate its territory and the peoples living on it’. Then, on 16 April, Russia suddenly ‘upgraded’ its diplomatic relations with the two territories. The two moves had all the appearance of a concerted strategy to prevent the reintegration of Georgia’s regions – or even to annexe them. According to a Russian military analyst, Pavel Felgenhauer, it was around this time that Moscow took a decision to go to war: ‘The goal was to destroy Georgia’s central government, defeat the Georgian army, and prevent Georgia from joining NATO.’ 12
    That was certainly the feeling in Tbilisi, where some in the leadership were itching to go. A senior US official had a conversation with Georgian security ministers in April where they said: ‘The Russians have already positioned themselves to take over. We think they are preparing to move forces into our country, assembling them in Russia. We Georgians have our sources. So we think it is better to move first rather than just wait and let them march in and take over.’
    The US official responded: ‘You know that is suicide.’
    And the Georgians replied: ‘Well, if they cross that red line, maybe we would rather die as true patriots and real Georgian men!’
    Throughout the spring of 2008 Russia and Georgia each claimed the other was about to attack – and Abkhazia seemed the likelier flashpoint rather than South Ossetia. Russia sent troop reinforcements to the region; the Georgians increased their forces in the Upper Kodori Valley district which they controlled. Georgia flew unmanned reconnaissance drones over the region to monitor Russian troop movements. The Abkhaz called this a violation of their sovereignty, and Russian fighters shot some of the aircraft down. In late April the Russian foreign ministry claimed that Georgia was planning a military intervention in Abkhazia, and Russia vowed to use ‘all’ its resources to protect Russian citizens in the two disputed territories. In early May Condoleezza Rice expressed concern over the rising Russian troop levels in Abkhazia, and a week later the Georgians released footage shot by a reconnaissance drone which apparently confirmed the movement and deployment of Russian troops and military hardware in Abkhazia.
    At the end of May Russia announced it was sending 400 ‘unarmed’ troops to Abkhazia to repair a railway line. The