Donovans 02 - Jade Island

especially in China.”
    “Then it’s to China’s best interest to find some means of defusing the situation,” Helen said.
    “Economically speaking, yes. But we must remember that China is and always has been ruled by symbols. It is very difficult for Westerners to understand, yet I have no doubt that China would sooner invite economic turmoil than be seen as bowing to America’s will, much less to Taiwan’s.”
    “Lev, what do you think?” Helen asked, turning toward the other man.
    “It will be a disaster,” Lev Kline, the guest economist, said bluntly. “China and the United States are at a crucial juncture in trade talks. Three days ago, we were at the point of agreeing on allotments of automobiles in exchange for clothing imports, among many other items, plus an agreement to ensure that Chinese banks follow international…”
    Farmer switched all of his attention to the computer screens. The talking heads of public television knew less about the trade situation than he did. For one thing, they hadn’t even mentioned China’s brisk international arms trade. But even setting that aside, the brutal, overriding truth was that China’s economy was based on exports of everything from guns to teething rings. Unless China climbed down off its ridiculous high horse, trade barriers would go up and the flood of Chinese exports to America’s rich markets would squeeze down to a trickle.
    When that happened, international bank loans made to China would be in jeopardy of default, because there would be no export profits to make payments on the loans. The West would lose some profit margin if China defaulted. China would lose a hell of a lot more.
    Defaulting on international loans would set off a chain of consequences. Foremost among them would be China printing more money to cover its debts, money that had no true value to back it up. Inflation would quickly follow. Unless good money came in from somewhere else—not likely, if China was defaulting on international loans—inflation would get out of hand until Chinese money wasn’t worth the match to burn it.
    People would riot in the streets because a week’s wages couldn’t buy a cup of rice. Severe repression would be the order of the day. If that didn’t get the job done, there would be a military coup, order would be restored, and a new state would be reborn within the burned-out shell of the old.
    It had happened before. It would happen again. It was the way of the world.
    Since Farmer didn’t have anything on mainland China worth protecting, he didn’t care about the value of Chinese currency or the cost of a bowl of rice. If he had been established in China, as he hoped to be in a decade, he would have fought with every bit of leverage and lies at his command to defuse the growing crisis, as China’s other trading partners were no doubt doing, including the United States.
    Farmer wasn’t one of those partners. About all he had at risk was an overpriced jade suit. Whatever happened in China wouldn’t particularly affect his lucrative South American markets, or his Russian ones. But in eight years—sixteen at most—those markets would be saturated.
    He needed another low-tech, high-density population to sell electronics to, a country where the industrial revolution had taken place, but not the computer revolution. Africa, India, and China were the obvious choices. Africa didn’t have the money to boot up for the twenty-first century. Even if Africa could get the loans, its future population density was problematic. Too many African states had denied or ignored AIDS for too long.
    India had the population, and the money, to buy computers, but Farmer hadn’t been strong enough to lock up that market when it emerged. Farmer Enterprises was struggling along on a 14.4 percent market share in India. It was bigger than anyone else’s, but not nearly big enough to overpower the shifting coalition of international businesses that kept undercutting his prices.
    China beckoned like a sweet, unspoiled dream. In China, Farmer’s challenge had been to find a good, competitive edge over the rest of the international business wolves. He had tried the usual bribes, the usual kickbacks, and had got the usual results. Good, but not good enough.
    To his surprise, the Jade Emperor’s burial suit was becoming the very edge he had been searching for. All that remained was for China to bow to the inevitable and openup negotiations with him. If the government