Kunst des klaren Denkens

248.
    »Warren Buffett’s rule for open-outcry auctions: don’t go.« Charlie Munger on the Psychology of Human Misjudgment . Rede an der Harvard University, Juni 1995.
Der fundamentale Attributionsfehler
    Der Stanford-Psychologe Lee Ross hat zum ersten Mal den fundamentalen Attributionsfehler beschrieben, siehe: Ross, L.: »The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process«, in: Berkowitz, L. (Hrsg.): Advances in experimental social psychology (vol. 10), Academic Press, 1977.
    Das Experiment mit der Rede, siehe: Jones, E. E.; Harris, V. A.: »The attribution of attitudes«, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 3, 1967, S. 1–24.
    Siehe auch: Plous, Scott: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making , McGraw-Hill, 1993, S. 180 f.
Die falsche Kausalität
    Dubben, Hans-Hermann; Beck-Bornholdt, Hans-Peter: Der Hund, der Eier legt. Erkennen von Fehlinformation durch Querdenken , rororo, 2006, S. 175 ff.
    Das schöne Beispiel mit den Störchen, ebenda S. 181.
    Bücher im Haushalt, siehe: National Endowment for the Arts: To Read or Not To Read: A Question of National Consequence, November 2007.
The Halo Effect
    Das ultimative Buch für den Halo Effect in der Wirtschaft, von hier auch das Cisco-Beispiel: Rosenzweig, P.: The Halo Effect: and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers , Free Press, 2007.
    Thorndike, E. L.: »A constant error on psychological rating«, Journal of Applied Psychology IV, 1920, S. 25–29.
    Nisbett, Richard E.; Wilson, Timothy D.: »The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35 (4), 1977, S. 250–256.
Die alternativen Pfade
    Das Beispiel mit dem Russisch Roulette: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled By Randomness , Random House, 2001, S. 23.
    »It is hard to think of Alexander the Great or Julius Caesar as men who won only in the visible history, but who could have suffered defeat in others.If we have heard of them, it is simply because they took considerable risks, along with thousands of others, and happened to win. They were intelligent, courageous, noble (at times), had the highest possible obtainable culture in their day – but so did thousands of others who live in the musty footnotes of history.« (Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled by Randomness , Random House, 2001, S. 34)
    »My argument is that I can find you a security somewhere among the 40,000 available that went up twice that amount every year without fail. Should we put the social security money into it?« (ebenda S. 146)
Die Prognoseillusion
    Tetlock, Philip E.: How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits? Project Syndicate/Institute for Human Sciences, 2006.
    Koehler, Derek J.; Brenner, Lyle; Griffin, Dale: »The Calibration of Expert Judgment. Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory «, in: Gilovich, Dale Griffin and Daniel Kahneman (Hrsg.): Heuristics and Biases. The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , Cambridge University Press, 2002, S. 686.
    »The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.« (John Kenneth Galbraith, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/busi ness/4960280.stm )
    Der Prognose-Spruch von Tony Blair in: Buehler, Roger; Griffin, Dale; Ross, Michael: »Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions«, in: Gilovich, Thomas; Griffin, Dale; Kahneman, Daniel (Hrsg.): Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment , Cambridge University Press, 2002, S. 270.
    »There have been as many plagues as wars in history, yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise.« (Albert Camus, The Plague )
    »I don’t read economic forecasts. I don’t read the funny papers.« (Warren Buffett)
    Harvard-Professor Theodore Levitt: »It’s easy to be a prophet. You make twenty-five predictions and the ones that come true are the ones you talk about.« (Bevelin, Peter: Seeking Wisdom. From Darwin to Munger , Post Scriptum, 2003, S. 145)
    »There are 60,000 economists in the U.S., many of them employed full-time trying to forecast recessions and interest rates, and if they could do it successfully twice in a row, they‘d all be millionaires by now … as far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something.« (Lynch, Peter: One Up On Wall Street, Simon Schuster, 2000)
    Und weil dieser Satz so knackig war, hier gleich noch ein Zitat aus dem gleichen Buch: »Thousands of experts study overbought