Kunst des klaren Denkens

G. M.: »Attribution, affect and college exam performance«, Journal of Educational Psychology 71, 1979, S. 85–93.
    Baumeister, Roy F.: The Cultural Animal: Human Nature, Meaning, and Social Life , Oxford University Press, 2005, S. 215 ff.
    »Of course you also want to get the self-serving bias out of your mental routines. Thinking that what’s good for you is good for the wider civilization, and rationalizing foolish or evil conduct, based on your subconscious tendency to serve yourself, is a terrible way to think.« (Munger, Charles T.: Poor Charlie’s Almanack , Third Edition, Donning, 2008, S. 432)
    Der Versuch mit den Schulnoten, siehe: Johnson, Joel T. et al.: »The ›Barnum effect‹ revisited: Cognitive and motivational factors in the acceptance of personality descriptions«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49 (5), November 1985, S. 1378–1391.
    Zu den Schulnoten, siehe auch das Video: Ariely, Dan: Why we think it’s OK to cheat and steal (sometimes) auf   TED.com.
    Ross, M.; Sicoly, F.: »Egocentric biases in availability and attribution«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37, 1979, S. 322–336.
The Hedonic Treadmill
    Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: The Black Swan , Random House, 2007, S. 91.
    Gilbert, Daniel T. et al.: »Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75 (3), 1998, S. 617–638.
    Gilbert, Daniel T.; Ebert, Jane E. J.: »Decisions and Revisions: The Affective Forecasting of Changeable Outcomes«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 82 (4), 2002, S. 503–514.
    Gilbert, Daniel T.: Stumbling on happiness , Alfred A. Knopf, 2006.
    Gilbert, Daniel T.: (Video) auf TED.com. Why are we happy? ,
    Frey, Bruno S.; Stutzer, Alois: Happiness and Economics: How the Economy and Institutions Affect Human Well-Being, Princeton, 2001.
    Die Studie zu den Brustimplantaten hat es – dem Thema entsprechend – in Windeseile in viele Lifestyle-Publikationen geschafft. Die Stichprobe (112 Frauen) ist allerdings recht bescheiden. Siehe: Young, V. L.; Nemecek, J. R., Nemecek, D. A.: »The efficacy of breast augmentation: breast size increase, patient satisfaction, and psychological effects«, Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery 94 (7), Dezember 1994, S. 958–969.
The Self-Selection Bias
    »A more deliberate form of self selection bias often occurs in measuring the performance of investment managers. Typically, a number of funds areset up that are initially incubated: kept closed to the public until they have a track record. Those that are successful are marketed to the public, while those that are not successful remain in incubation until they are. In addition, persistently unsuccessful funds (whether in an incubator or not) are often closed, creating survivorship bias. This is all the more effective because of the tendency of investors to pick funds from the top of the league tables regardless of the performance of the manager’s other funds.« (Zitiert aus Moneyterms.co.uk)
    »It is not uncommon for someone watching a tennis game on television to be bombarded by advertisements for funds that did (until that minute) outperform other by some percentage over some period. But, again, why would anybody advertise if he didn’t happen to outperform the market? There is a high probability of the investment coming to you if its success is caused entirely by randomness. This phenomenon is what economists and insurance people call adverse selection.« (Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled by Randomness , Second Edition, Random House, 2008, S. 158)
    »Gibt es in der Natur vielleicht Dinge und Ereignisse, von denen wir nie etwas erfahren, weil sie unser Gehirn nicht bewältigt?« (Vollmer, Gerhard: Evolutionäre Erkenntnistheorie , Hirzel, 2002, S. 135)
    »Der Erkenntnisapparat muss nicht perfekt sein. Dass er nicht ideal sein muss, zeigt auch der Vergleich mit Tieren, die ja auch überleben, obwohl ihr Erkenntnisapparat weit weniger gut arbeitet.« (ebenda S. 137)
The Association Bias
    Die Geschichte mit dem Gasleck siehe: Baumeister, Roy F.: The Cultural Animal: Human Nature, Meaning, and Social Life , Oxford University Press, 2005, S. 280.
    Buffett will die schlechten Nachrichten hören, und zwar ohne Umschweife. Die guten Meldungen können warten. Siehe: Munger, Charles T.: Poor Charlie’s Almanack , Third Edition, Donning, 2008, S. 472.
    »Don’t shoot the messenger« kommt erstmals bei Shakespeare vor, und zwar in Henry