Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100

actually feels emotions. In some sense, it is like a tape recorder programmed not to make sounds, but to make facial emotions instead, with no awareness of what it is doing. But the breakthrough with KISMET is that it does not take much programming to create a robot that will mimic humanlike emotions to which humans will respond.
    These emotional robots will find their way into our homes. They won’t be our confidants, secretaries, or maids, but they will be able to perform rule-based procedures based on heuristics. By midcentury, they may have the intelligence of a dog or cat. Like a pet, they will exhibit an emotional bond with their master, so that they will not be easily discarded. You will not be able to speak to them in colloquial English, but they will understand programmed commands, perhaps hundreds of them. If you tell them to do something that is not already stored in their memory (such as “go fly a kite”), they will simply give you a curious, confused look. (If by midcentury robot dogs and cats can duplicate the full range of animal responses, indistinguishable from real animal behavior, then the question arises whether these robot animals feel or are as intelligent as an ordinary dog or cat.)
    Sony experimented with these emotional robots when it manufactured the AIBO (artificial intelligence robot) dog. It was the first toy to realistically respond emotionally to its master, albeit in a primitive way. For example, if you pet the AIBO dog on its back, it would immediately begin to murmur, uttering soothing sounds. It could walk, respond to voice commands,and even learn to a degree. AIBO cannot learn new emotions and emotional responses. (It was discontinued in 2005 due to financial reasons, but it has since created a loyal following who upgrade the computer’s software so AIBO can perform more tasks.) In the future, robotic pets that form an emotional attachment to children may become common.
    Although these robot pets will have a large library of emotions and will form lasting attachments with children, they will not feel actual emotions.
    REVERSE ENGINEER THE BRAIN
    By midcentury, we should be able to complete the next milestone in the history of AI: reverse engineering the human brain. Scientists, frustrated that they have not been able to create a robot made of silicon and steel, are also trying the opposite approach: taking apart the brain, neuron by neuron—just like a mechanic might take apart a motor, screw by screw—and then running a simulation of these neurons on a huge computer. These scientists are systematically trying to simulate the firings of neurons in animals, starting with mice, cats, and going up the evolutionary scale of animals. This is a well-defined goal, and should be possible by midcentury.
    MIT’s Fred Hapgood writes, “ Discovering how the brain works —
exactly
how it works, the way we know how a motor works—would rewrite almost every text in the library.”
    The first step in the process of reverse engineering the brain is to understand its basic structure. Even this simple task has been a long, painful process. Historically, the various parts of the brain were identified during autopsies, without a clue as to their function. This gradually began to change when scientists analyzed people with brain damage, and noticed that damage to certain parts of the brain corresponded to changes in behavior. Stroke victims and people suffering from brain injuries or diseases exhibited specific behavior changes, which could then be matched to injuries in specific parts of the brain.
    The most spectacular example of this was in 1848 in Vermont, when a 3-foot, 8-inch-long metal rod was driven right through the skull of a railroad foreman named Phineas Gage. This history-making accident happened when dynamite accidentally exploded. The rod entered the side of his face, shattered his jaw, went through his brain, and passed out the top ofhis head. Miraculously, he survived this horrendous accident, although one or both of his frontal lobes were destroyed. The doctor who treated him at first could not believe that anyone could survive such an accident and still be alive. He was in a semiconscious state for several weeks, but later miraculously recovered. He even survived for twelve more years, taking odd jobs and traveling, dying in 1860. Doctors carefully preserved his skull and the rod, and they have been intensely studied ever since. Modern techniques, using CT scans, have