Die Berechnung der Zukunft: Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller (German Edition)

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-01-24/world/russia.airport.explosion_1_suicide-bomber-moscow-police-moscow-during-rush-hour?_s=PM:WORLD
    79Ken Silverstein, »The Al Qaeda Clubhouse: Members Lacking«, Harper’s magazine, 5. Juli 2006; http://w41k.info/1968
    80Aaron Clauset, Maxwell Young und Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, »On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events«, Journal of Conflict Resolution , 51, 1 (Februar 2007), S. 58–87; http://www.cabdyn.ox.ac.uk/complexity_PDFs/CABDyN%20Seminars%202007_2008/Frequency%20Events_Gleditsch.pdf
    81 Jerusalem Post poll by TNS/Teleseker of 500 Jewish Israelis, 23. bis 24. Januar 2012; http://thejerusalemreport.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/poll-new.jpg
    82David Weisburd, Tal Jonathan und Simon Perry, »The Israeli Model for Policing Terrorism: Goals, Strategies, and Open Questions«, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 12 (Dezember 2009), S. 1259–1278
    83»Iraq: What Did Congress Know, and When?« FactCheck.org, 19. November 2005; http://www.factcheck.org/iraq_what_did_ congress_know_and_when.html
    84»Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on Postwar Findings About Iraq’s WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How They Compare with Prewar Assessments«, U.S. Senate, 109th Congress, 2nd Session; 8. September 2006; http://intelligence.senate.gov/phaseiiaccuracy.pdf
    85Martin Chulov und Helen Pidd, »Defector Admits to WMD Lies That Triggered Iraq War«, The Guardian , 15. Februar 2011; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/defector-admits-wmd-lies-iraq-war
    86Schneier, »Beyond Security Theater«, Kindle locations 1321 f.
    87Harvey E. Lapan und Todd Sandler, »Terrorism and Signalling«, European Journal of Political Economy, 9, 3 (August 1993), S. 383–397
    88 The 9/11 Commission Report, Kindle locations 9286 f.
    89Michael A. Babyak, »What You See May Not Be What You Get: A Brief, Nontechnical Introduction to Overfitting in Regression-Type Models«, Psychosomatic Medicine , 66 (2004), S. 411–421; 2004; http://os1.amc.nl/mediawiki/images/Babyak_-_overfitting.pdf

Zusammenfassung
    1Brian Cartwright, »That Great Derek Jeter Conspiracy« FanGraphs , 17. Januar 2009; http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-derek-jeter-conspiracy/
    2 Der Halley ’ sche Komet wurde zuerst am Weihnachtstag 1758 gesichtet. Vgl. Peter Lancaster Brown, Halley and His Comet (Suffolk, England: Blandford Press, 1985)
    3Mary Frances Williams, »The Sidus Iulium, the Divinity of Men, and the Golden Age in Virgil’s Aeneid«, Leeds International Classical Studies, Bd. 2, Nummer 1, 2003; http://lics.leeds.ac.uk/2003/200301.pdf
    4 Das genaue Jahr der Erfindung ist umstritten, aber im Jahr 1990 stellte Berners-Lee die erste erfolgreiche Verbindung zwischen einem HTTP-Client und dem Internet her. Die Hypertextdokumente, die als World Wide Web bezeichnet werden, dürfen nicht mit dem Internet verwechselt werden, dem Netzwerk, mit dem auf das World Wide Web zugegriffen wird, und das – wie alle wissen – von Al Gore erfunden wurde.
    5Glenn Gunzelmann und Kevin A. Gluck, »Knowledge Tracing for Complex Training Applications: Beyond Bayesian Mastery Estimates«, Air Force Research Laboratory, Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, 2004, S. 383 f.; http://act-r.psy.cmu.edu/papers/710/gunzelmann_gluck-2004.pdf
    6Sarah Lichtenstein und Baruch Fischhoff, »Training for Calibration«, prepared for U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, ARI Technical Report TR-78-A32; November 1978; http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA069703
    7Christopher J. Gill, Lora Sabin und Christopher H. Schmidt, »Why Clinicians Are Natural Bayesians«, British Medical Journal, vol. 330; 7. Mai 2005; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC557240/
    8Tomaso Poggio und Federico Girosi, »A Theory of Networks for Approximation and Learning«, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Center for Biological Information Processing, Whitaker College, A.I. Memo 1140, C.B.I.P. Paper 31, Juli 1989; http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA212359
    9Amanda Ripley, The Unthinkable (New York: Random House, Kindle edition), locations 337–360
    10Ibid., Kindle locations 3688–98
    11Joel Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, Kindle Edition), locations 160 ff.
    12Jay Rosen, »The View from Nowhere: Questions and Answers«, Jay