Die Berechnung der Zukunft: Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller (German Edition)

einem jeder, der für die New York Times arbeitet, erklären wird.
    58Allison, Nuclear Terrorism , Kindle location 112
    59J.F. Frittelli et al., Port and Maritime Security: Background and Issues (New York: Novinka Books, 2003)
    60»Status of World Nuclear Forces«, Federation of American Scientists; http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/nukestatus.html
    61Allison, Nuclear Terrorism , Kindle location 3258
    62Suzanne Goldenberg, »Bush Threatened to Bomb Pakistan, Says Musharraf«, The Guardian , 21. September 2006; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/sep/22/pakistan.usa
    63Jay Newton-Small, »Bin Laden May Have Lived at Abbottabad Compound for Six Years«, Swampland – Time , 3. Mai 2011; http://swampland.time.com/2011/05/03/bin-laden-may-have-lived-at-abbottabad-compound-for-six-years/
    64David Albright und Paul Brannan, »Pakistan Doubling Rate of Making Nuclear Weapons: Time for Pakistan to Reverse Course«, Institute for Science and International Security, 16. Mai 2011; http://www.isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/pakistan-doubling-rate-of-making-nuclear-weapons-time-for-pakistan-to-rever/
    65»The Political Instability Index«, ViewsWire, Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist ; http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=social_unrest_table&page=noads&rf=0
    66 Randy Borum, »Psychology of Terrorism«, Encyclopedia of Peace Psychology (New York: Springer Science, 2010), S. 62; http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1045&context=randy_borum&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.de%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3DRandy%252BBorum%252C%252B%25E2%2580%259EPsychology%252Bof%252BTerrorism%25E2%2580%259C%252C%252BEncyclopedia%252Bof%252BPeace%252BPsychology%252B%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D2%26ved%3D0CDcQFjAB%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fworks.bepress.com%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%253Farticle%253D1045%2526context%253Drandy_borum%26ei%3 D9uvPUc_GOs_EsgbEioDIBQ%26usg%3DAFQjCNGb38W5lRWKqqAm6OpTR_aE7TK7jA#search=%22Randy%2BBorum%2C%2B»Psychology%2Bof%2BTerrorism«%2C%2BEncyclopedia%2Bof%2BPeace%2BPsychology%2B%22
    67Vgl. z. B. Mohammed M. Hafez, »Suicide Terrorism in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment of the Quantitative Data and Documentary Evidence«, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism , 29, 6 (September 2006), S. 531–559; https://www.ncjrs.gov/app/publications/Abstract.aspx?id=237341
    68 Atomwissenschaftler könnten käuflich oder erpressbar sein. In den USA gibt es ein Programm, die Nuclear Cities Initiative, das Atomwissenschaftlern in der ehemaligen Sowjetunion dabei behilflich ist, eine neue Arbeit zu finden, statt für die falschen Leute zu arbeiten.
    69»Dark Winter Exercise Overview«, Center for Biosecurity, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 22. bis 23. Juni 2001; http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/events/2001_darkwinter/index.html
    70 Der Ausdruck Schäden ist bewusst vage, da die Schäden von Beben menschlich gesehen nicht unbedingt in einem Verhältnis von 1 zu 1 zu der freigesetzten Energie stehen.
    71James Q. Wilson und George L. Kelling, »Broken Windows«, The Atlantic , März 1982; http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/_atlantic_monthly-broken_windows.pdf
    72Bernard E. Harcourt und Jens Ludwig, »Reefer Madness: Broken Windows Policing and Misdemeanor Marijuana Arrests in New York City, 1989–2000«, Criminology and Public Policy, University of Chicago Law & Economics, Olin Working Paper Nr. 317/University of Chicago, Public Law Working Paper Nr. 142; 2007; http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=948753
    73Kees Keizer, Siegwart Lindenberg und Linda Steg, »The Spreading of Disorder«, Science , 322, 5908 (Dezember 2008), S. 1681–1685; http://www.sciencemag.org/content/322/5908/1681.abstract
    74Bernard E. Harcourt und Jens Ludwig, »Broken Windows: New Evidence from New York City and a Five-City Social Experiment«, University of Chicago Law Review, 73 (2006); http://lawreview.uchicago.edu/sites/lawreview.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/73.1/73_1_Harcourt_Ludwig.pdf
    75Bruce Schneier, »Beyond Security Theater«, Schneier on Security, 13. November 2009; http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/11/beyond_security.html
    76Ibid., Kindle location 1035
    77Nate Silver, »Crunching the Risk Numbers«, Wall Street Journal , 8. Januar 2010; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703481004574646963713065116.html
    78Russian Authorities: Terrorist Bombing at Moscow Airport Kills 35, CNN Wire; 24. Januar 2011;