Die Berechnung der Zukunft: Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller (German Edition)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/health/17cancer.html
    38Dan M. Kahan et al., »The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks«, Nature Climate Change , 27. Mai 2012
    39 25 000 Tage vor dem 11. September 2001 bedeutet: bis zurück ins Jahr 1942.
    40John P.A. Ioannidis, »Why Most Published Research Findings Are False«, PLOS Medicine, 2, e124 (August 2005); http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
    41Brian Owens, »Reliability of ›New Drug Target‹ Claims Called Into Question«, NewsBlog, Nature , 5. September 2011; http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/09/reliability_of_new_drug_target.html
    42McGrayne, S.B., The Theory That Would Not Die , Kindle location 46; dt.: Die Theorie (erscheint Sept. 2013, vgl. Anm. 29)
    43Paul D. Stolley, »When Genius Errs: R.A. Fisher and the Lung Cancer Controversy« American Journal of Epidemiology , 133, 5, 1991; http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/PDF%20bg/Stolley%20PD%201991%20when%20genius%20errs%20-%20RA%20fisher%20and%20the%20lung%20cancer.pdf
    44 Alan Agresti und David B. Hitchcock, »Bayesian Inference for Categorical Data Analysis«, Statistical Methods & Applications, 14 (2005), S. 297–330; http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~aa/articles/agresti_hitchcock_2005.pdf
    45John Aldrich, »R. A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes’ Theorem«, Bayesian Analysis , 3, Nr. 1 (2008), S. 161–170; http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/ 2008/vol03/issue01/aldrich.pdf
    46McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die, Kindle location 48; dt.: Die Theorie (erscheint Sept. 2013, vgl Anm. 29)
    47Tore Schweder, »Fisherian or Bayesian Methods of Integrating Diverse Statistical Information?« Fisheries Research , 37, 1–3 (August 1998), S. 61–75; http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016578369 8001271
    482008 New Hampshire Democratic Primary polls via RealClearPolitics.com; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
    49Nate Silver, »Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly«, FiveThirtyEight , New York Times , 4. November 2010; http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/ 04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
    50R.A. Grant und T. Halliday, »Predicting the Unpredictable; Evidence of Pre-Seismic Anticipatory Behaviour in the Common Toad«, Journal of Zoology , 700, 25. Januar 2010; http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Environment/documents/2010/03/30/toads.pdf
    51»Hate Group Formation Associated with Big-Box Stores«, ScienceNewsline.com , 11. April 2012; http://www.sciencenewsline.com/psychology/2012041121000031.html
    52Aldrich, »R.A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes’ Theorem.«
    53McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die, Kindle location 111; dt.: Die Theorie (erscheint Sept. 2013, vgl. Anm. 29)
    54Sir Ronald A. Fisher, »Smoking: The Cancer Controversy«, Oliver and Boyd; http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/smoking.htm
    55 Jean Marston, »Smoking Gun«, NewScientist , Nr. 2646, 8. März 2008; http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726460.900-smoking-gun.html
    56McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die, Kindle location 113; dt.: Die Theorie (erscheint Sept. 2013, vgl. Anm. 29)
    57Stolley, »When Genius Errs.«
    58Ibid.
    59Jo Tuckman und Robert Booth, »Four-Years-Old Could Hold Key in Search for Source of Swine Flu Outbreak,« The Guardian , 27. April 2009; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/27/swine-flu-search-outbreak-source
    60McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die , Kindle location 7; dt.: Die Theorie (erscheint Sept. 2013, vgl. Anm. 29)
    61Raymond S. Nickerson, »Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: A Review of an Old and Continuing Controversy«, Psychological Methods , 5, 2 (2000), S. 241–301
    62Andrew Gelman und Cosma Tohilla Shalizi, »Philosophy and the Practice of Bayesian Statistics«, British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology , S. 1–31, 11. Januar 2012
    63 Die Schritte der wissenschaftlichen Methode lassen sich unterschiedlich beschreiben; diese Version fußt überwiegend auf: »APPENDIX E: Introduction to the Scientific Method«, University of Rochester; http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html
    64Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, Kindle edition, 22. Oktober 2010)
    65Jacob Cohen, »The Earth Is Round (p<.05)«, American Psychologist , 49, 12